Hi everyone,

I spotted a reversal doji for Amazon, it dropped to $61+ and came back up strongly to $63+. I have short guts on Amzn, which I rolled until Oct 08.

Now, I would like to add on a bull put spread on AMZN. Probably a naked short put at 50 strike.

Thank you!

JK

Yes,not only AMZN, those financial counters like LEH, MER and WFR also staged a reversal rally. QQQQ did that.

With this reversal, the delta became less menacing for the short put. My positions are still in the range, but a drop in delta for short put helped. VIX also dropped.

But it all depend today whether the momentum is still there. Hilary Clinton has halted the winning momentum of Barrack Obama temporarily, I hope the momentum in the rally will not stop.

Thanks JK!

JK, it seemed it staged a strong rally after the job report today. It was scary yesterday.

Pesonally, I think once QQQQ can close above $43.30 today, it is likely the market is doing a convincing reversal.

If the reversal is successful, then the US dollar will rebound too. Go for everyone!

Yes, I am watching closely. Some of the short put are already turning green now, I am very happy.

Like Sun said, the market has to be on the upper end of the 1-hour range before we could go long. Now, it is near the upper range and it seemed the market is heading north. I wil probably sell some fa OTM put, and probably buy some calls.

Sorry, Sun, I am doing some directional play these few days. Don't worry, I still have all the short guts in the range for weekend's time decay.

Wish me well!

JK

As I said, the Qs has to close above $42.30 to have a string reversal. It did not and today it plunged to its lowest level since Jan 2008.

Hi everyone!

One day strong rally followed by a sharp correction. The market rose 400 pts two days ago, and many have sold into strength.

Some say this is called bear trap. It trapped those who thought that was the time to be bullish. But it reversed down sharply yesterday, and gapped down today.

But I believe it is just a fast bear trap. As long as the Qs can close above $42.30 today, it will go steady. Steady does not mean up, it could be up a few days, down a bit and go sideways.

I went to a trading convention lately in Singapore. surprising every speaker and instructor was telling people to short. If these guys, I call them men in the street, are shorting, I think it is time the market will reverse. Reverse up strongly, and the short sellers will sell their lives short.

Believe it, or not?

Hi everyone,

I am not sleeping yet even though it is already 1am Singapore time.

The market today is so interesting. It gapped down at the opening. Now, it seems it is filling the gap.

Hanz, I am more pessimistic than you. The Qs has to close above $42.80 for it to go further. It shows some signs of higher low, if the market does not pull back for next few days, then it has a high chance to rebound. Hurray!

Thank you!

Hi JK., Hi everyone,

It appeared there were some short covering today. Again, if QQQQ could close above $42.30 today and tomorrow, then the bear will retreat back to the cave for a while.

Cheers for my delta, cheers to lower volatility. I sold some QQQQ options when VIX was 31 yesterday. Very high time value there.

All the best to all!

Hanz

Hi Hanz,

It seemed both of our resistances were broken, QQQQ stayed above your $42.30 and my $42.80. Well, the next resistance is at $45.

Cheers!

JK

I also noticed most oil, agricultural, mining related counters went south as the market recovered.

US dollar also strengthen (That is good for my US dollar trading account)

Does it mean foreign funds are buying into cheap US property, helped by weak US dollar? Probably fund managers are taking profit from the oil, gold and commodities and reinvest it back into the US dollar and US economy?

JK

As long as the Qs could close above $42.35 today, it will go all the way, UP!

I observed that when the market reached the bottom and reversed up one day, then followed by another big pull back, but not to its previous low, the market is poised to rally up.

Hope it will happen again.

Yes, it did, Hanz. Congratulations.

The US dollar also recovered strongly, thanks to long liquidation in commodities. The money is flowing back to currency. The property in US also looks more attractive with plunge in property prices, and a low US dollar.

I remember Sun telling us that there is nothing much to worry about the plunge in US dollar in our trading account because it is 'hedged' partially by the interest payment on premium collection/options writing. Once the US dollar recovers, o stabilizes, the net gain is the interest collection.

Oh I forgot, we also collect time value from options writing.

I like it!

JK

Yes, indeed.

With this reversal, delta is less damaging, and with VIX back at 25+, all time value shrunk.

I love it, there is no need to keep on rolling down. The short put is still pretty far ITM. So, as long as the market stays flat, or slightly up, there will be mre time decay.

It's Tiger Time.

Hanz

Dear Mr. Hanz and Ms JK,

You two semi-directional players are adding colors to our non-directional forum. Remember to keep as many as possible non-directional trades on top of your directional ones.

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